Military Predicted Rise in Guerrilla Attacks After Saddam’s Capture

By: Sudarsan Raghavan and John Walcott, Knight-Ridder Newspapers (KRT)
Posted In: News

BAGHDAD, Iraq _ A top-secret report prepared for the American military command in Iraq just before Saddam Hussein was caught predicted that guerrilla attacks would increase after his arrest, as more anti-Saddam Iraqis joined the resistance.

The report argued that seizing Saddam could provoke more attacks by making the insurgency more acceptable to Sunni Muslims who weren’t members of Saddam’s Baath Party elite, according to senior administration officials who’ve seen it. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the report is classified.

The insurgency in Iraq has been strongest in the so-called Sunni Triangle, where most of Iraq’s Sunni minority lives, and where Saddam drew his strongest political support.

Hopes that Saddam’s capture might end the resistance appeared premature Tuesday, as U.S. soldiers captured a senior Iraqi rebel leader and 78 others in a raid on a northeastern village a day after guerrillas ambushed an American patrol in a firefight that left 11 assailants dead.

The top U.S. military official in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, on Tuesday conceded that Saddam’s capture has had little effect on the pace of attacks on American troops. He said U.S. troops had clashed with insurgents about 18 times in the past 24 hours. That was the same as the average for the past two weeks, although drastically lower than the 40 attacks a day a month ago.

“We expect it’ll be some time before we see any possible effects of what we’ve accomplished,” Sanchez said. “As I’ve stated over and over, we expect the violence to continue at some level for some time. We’re prepared for that.”

The report says Sunnis – Baathists and non-Baathists – consider themselves the big losers because they have no place in the evolving provisional government. The majority Shiite Muslims, according to the report, are represented adequately through two parties on the Iraqi Governing Council. So are Kurdish and exile political groups. As a result, Sunnis are more willing to support the resistance, the report says.

The theory is that the Sunnis think it’s better to force Americans out now, while there’s still a chance of restoring Sunni political power. The Sunnis, including Saddam, have dominated Iraq’s political system for most of the last century. They don’t want to wait for elections, caucuses, a constitution that would hand power to the majority Shiites or the creation of an anti-Sunni coalition of Shiites and Kurds.

The influence of radical Islamists in the resistance is also likely to grow with Saddam gone. In the coming months, possible confusion caused by the rotation of U.S. troops and activities aimed at preparing for the transfer of sovereignty to Iraqis on July 1 also could encourage an increase in attacks.

A major suicide bombing Saturday night in Khaldiya killed 20 police officers who were working with the Americans. There were more suicide bombings Monday in Baghdad, also directed against collaborators with the coalition, and two Polish officials were attacked Friday.

Suicide bombings have increased in the past three weeks, although there’ve been few American casualties, and suicide bombers tend to be radical Islamists, not secular Baathists.

___

(Knight Ridder correspondent Jonathan S. Landay contributed to this report.)

___

(c) 2003, Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.